Historic Night in France!
Manchester City's CDM wins football's greatest individual honor
In case you are living under a rock, Rodri won the Ballon d’Or on Monday, shocking many as Vinicius was the odds-on favorite coming into the ceremony. Rodri’s win was both unexpected and historic. To put into context how likely Real Madrid’s star man was to win the award, here is a chart showing the odds over time (since the start of the year)
While this chart uses the same color for half of the players, you get the idea. Reports surfaced prior to the ceremony that Rodri was “leaked” as the winner. As a result, Real Madrid elected not to attend the ceremony out of protest. This meant they were not there to receive the best team award, Mbappé was not there to claim the Gerd Müller trophy, and Ancelotti was not there to take home the best manager award. It is a bad look for a club that is generally known for operating with the highest class. These antics come days after Real Madrid was demolished 4-0 by rivals Barcelona and displayed some questionable acts.
In the grand scheme of things, the “leak” takes away confidence in the ceremony. You want to believe that everyone in the room (and around the world) is hearing the winner for the first time when it is announced in France by whoever the famous guest is (this year, it was George Weah). As much as I hope this to be the case, in actuality, it doesn’t seem plausible. The chaos leading up to Rodri's being announced as the winner is indicative of this lack of credibility at these ceremonies. You hope that things like this can be avoided in the future.
Since Rodri has been announced as the winner, several Real Madrid players have come forward blasting the result. For instance Camavinga had the following to say to the Brazilian who he felt was robbed.
‘’FOOTBALL POLITICS. My brother you are the best player in the world and no award can say otherwise. Love you my bro.”
Let’s not let all of Real Madrid's antics take away from this. Rodri’s Ballon d’Or win is historic, regardless of your opinion on it. With his win, he becomes the…
First Spaniard to win the Ballon d'Or since 1960
First DM to win the Ballon d'Or since 1996
First Premier League player to win the Ballon d'Or since 2008
First non-Real Madrid/Barca player to win the Ballon d'Or since 2008
First Man City player to ever win the Ballon d'Or
While a strong argument can be made as to why Vinicius should have won it, it is easy to see why Rodri ultimately received the award.
Firstly, when Rodri plays, City wins. When the Spaniard was featured last season in the league, the Citizens had 27 wins and six draws. Without Rodri, they had one win and three losses. Furthermore, when he plays (in all competitions), Man City, as a team, concedes an average of .9 goals per match, this number jumps up to 1.3 goals per match when Rodri is absent. The attacking numbers are just as striking, with Rodri 2.7 goals scored per match versus 1.3 without. It is hard to explain how big a difference these figures are. When Rodri plays, City is a significantly better side. Isn’t that what it ultimately comes down to?
The second reason Rodri won is because he is the ultimate complete player. As mentioned before, he has tremendous impacts on both sides of the ball. Below is a map with key metrics that can to some extent quantify his brilliance
Most of these metrics are self-explainable (goals/assist per 90, expected goals, shots per 90, etc...) With that being said, there are two key metrics that can go under the radar and are not as easy to understand. The first of these is KP90, which is simply defined as the number of passes that lead to a shot every 90 minutes. The next is xgChain90, which is the total xG (expected goals) of every possession the player is involved in per 90 minutes. These high numbers mean that Rodri plays a key role in helping City get shots on goal and chances in general when they have the ball.
To understand how absurd this map is, I have compared it to Luka Modric’s Ballon d’Or winning season.
Rodri matches or betters Modric in almost every single category (worse in only one). In the two metrics I discussed earlier, Rodri beats Modric on xGChain90 and is very close in KP90. It is simply incredible for Rodri to produce numbers like these, especially when you consider that in 2017/18, Modric was part of one of the best teams ever assembled, who were just coming off the back of three consecutive Champions League trophies.
I have also compared Rodri’s map to Declan Rice’s as the two play the same position in the same league and the Arsenal midfielder is often considered among the world’s best midfielders.
Declan Rice is a great player, and the map is a solid reflection of that. However, Rodri’s chart blows him out of the water. Rice can only manage to come remotely close to Rodri in only four categories (while drawing one, xA90). This comparison further shows how unbelievably good Rodri was last season.
To conclude, the 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony marked the first time since 2003 that neither Messi nor Ronaldo was nominated, ushering in a new era. While there is no denying all that both players have done for the game, their absence certainly makes the Ballon d’Or more interesting. It was truly one of the most bizarre Ballon d’Or shocks and ceremonies I have ever seen.